May 13, 2008
The Khartoum attack explained
So, after hours of exhaustive interviews, in depth research and the refining of my own expert analysis, I have at last come up with the motive behind JEM's shock attack on Khartoum.
It is any one of the following 10 explanations. Or perhaps a combination of 1, 2 and 3. Or 5 and 8. Or just 7, with the understanding that the secondary target could also be El Fasher, al Obeid, or the Meroe Dam.
- A bloody PR move to get JEM some headlines
- Retribution – to bring some of Darfur's suffering to Khartoum
- Humiliation of Khartoum and exposure of holes in its security system
- Chad-backed revenge for the two Khartoum-backed rebel raids on N'Djamena
- The move of a mad, power-hungry warlord
- A move to break the stalemate in the Darfur peace process AKA Operation Longarm
- Distraction while JEM prepares for an offensive on El Geneina
- A genuine coup attempt
- The first stages of a coup attempt to test for support among army and opposition
- Creating chaos in the capital leading to the breakdown of the state
Now that we have a clear understanding of the reasoning behind the attack, surely it is time for the international community to step up efforts for a solution.
Posted by aheavens at May 13, 2008 7:22 AM
Comments
My money is on a combination of 1,3,9 and 10. Sounds like Deby is doing his nut too. Furious with Khalil, according to informed sources (ie a pal I just bumped into).
Posted by: Rob Crilly at May 13, 2008 11:07 AM