January 12, 2007
"Events, dear boy, events"
Making predictions is a dangerous business.
Here are The Economist's predictions for the Horn of Africa, just published in its book/magazine 'The World in 2007':
Many of the headlines will come from Somalia, where Islamists will continue to hold the balance of power...
Ethiopia will try to use the African Union to send a force of pecekeepers into Somalia, including Ugandan and Sudanese troops. This will provoke the Islamists, who strongly oppose any foreign presence in Somalia....
The result will be a war that will threaten the stability of Ethiopia. It will not resemble the 1977 Ogaden war, when Somalia came in with conventional forces. The Islamists have no tanks or air power. Instead they will rely on guerrilla tactics and terrorist operations.
That predicted chain of events may have already been history by the end of 2006. It remains to be seen whether the Economist is right about the eventual outcome.
The headline, by the way, is a quote from UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan, warning how easily plans and predictions can be disrupted by things that happen. The Economist, to its credit, quotes it in an article in the same publication, explaining how "not everything you read in The World in 2007 will turn out precisely as predicted".
Posted by aheavens at January 12, 2007 6:04 AM