December 25, 2006
Merry Christmas – it's war
So we are at war. We are no longer "technically" at war, or swapping challenges and insults, or officially providing training support to somebody else's army. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi appeared on television last night to say "to defend the attack from the Union of Islamic Courts, we are forced to go into war today".
From a facile point of view in Addis Ababa, nothing seems to have changed. Today seems very much like yesterday. Perhaps it is a bit quieter. Perhaps everyone is a bit more sullen on the streets. Things have been getting a bit quieter for a while now. There have been all sorts of rumours of round-ups and so on going on – so far totally unsubstantiated. But the rumours have been enough.
Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) has reportedly made a few threats about striking Addis Ababa. I don't know anyone who is seriously expecting to see suicide bombers in Meskel Square. But again, the threats have their impact. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs here issued a typically defiant reaction to the UIC statement saying if extremists within the Islamic Courts could attack Addis Ababa then they would have done so by now.
Perhaps they were trying to boost the spirit of Addis Ababans – to reassure them that everything was under control. It had the opposite effect on me. The statement reminded me of the old English football chant "Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" You can just imagine a radicalised young Somali guy listening to his radio somewhere in Mogadishu saying "All right then…"
Most of the reporting up to now has understandably been focused on the battlefront, on the tanks and Migs and ground artillery pounding away around four key towns - and most recently Mogadishu airport - inside Somalia.
But we shouldn't forget the scattered families living either side of the border. I don't know much about Somalia. But I've spent quite a bit of time on the Ethiopian side of the border in the country's Somali region. There have been lots of reasons for journalists to visit Somali region over the past 18 months. Last year, there were devastating floods. At the beginning of this year, there was a devastating drought. Over the last two months there has been yet another devastating flood.
There has been severe acute malnutrition, measles, "acute watery diarrhoea", washed-way homes, shut-down schools, you name it... And now there is a potentially devastating war. The people of Gode, Denan, Kelafo, Warder and so on are hundreds of kilometres away from the fighting. But the bullets and bombs aren't the real problem.
There are only five vital trade roads connecting Somali region to the Red Sea via Somalia. Three of those roads – including an incredibly important one from Mogadishu through to Gode – are along the war-torn border. When those get closed - perhaps they already are - life will start to get really grim again in Somali region. Also most of the population are pastoralists - people who move around with their herds. When the military moves in in force, people stop moving.
The photos, by the way, are of the Christmas decorations at the Sheraton hotel here in Addis Ababa. Entire families have been coming out to gawp at the armies of climbing Santas and the bizarre saxophone orchestra of Father Christmases cut off at the waist. It is doubly bizarre because Ethiopian Orthodox Christians don't celebrate Christmas until early January.
Posted by aheavens at December 25, 2006 12:35 PM
Comments
It's a pity that with devastating floods, acute malnutrition, washed away homes and shut down schools, those with power and influence choose to spend their capital trying to increase their own power and influence at the expense of all of those who are already suffering terribly. Merry Christmas indeed. Hope y'all stay safe.
Posted by: paul at December 25, 2006 11:49 PM
Andrew, my wife and I live in Australia and very much enjoy your blog.
Can you tell us ... is the conflict with Somalia expected to increase tension between Christians and Muslims within Ethiopia itself and what are the likely results of this?
We hope to visit Ethiopia in 2007.
Kind Regards,
James Macpherson
Posted by: James Macpherson at December 26, 2006 2:37 AM
Merry X-mas to you too.
Thanks for caring....
Posted by: safiya at December 26, 2006 3:01 AM
you claim about unsubstantiated rumors amazing. You seem to have contempt for people reading your blog. How about saying you have not seen or have not made any investigation. You are saying things you dont see do not exist. Your true color seems to filter up. Please stop insuling us, those of us who are eye witnesses to the round ups
Posted by: nani at December 26, 2006 4:27 AM
I just feel its a pitty we have to go to war with Somalia...just so we don't loose our Political Influence (sorry...I mean to fight against radical Islam)! We're trying to support a Government which controls a fraction of the country! Why can't we leave Somalia alone? Would the IUC issue any threat if we weren't medling with their politics in the 1st place? What's Next? While our soldiers are busy there, Eritrea could just as well strike back (who knows)... and just when business started looking good, ethiopian millenium craze...And the scariest of all is that this war will not be a conventional one, we might not have much to worry about stray bullets...in Addis but what about bombings...?
Forgetting about myself for a while...like you said Andrew, the sadest thing is the layer of suffering which will be added to the Somali region people!
Posted by: Mohammed at December 26, 2006 7:14 AM
Andrew, thanks for your post. I just arrived in Ethiopia a few weeks back to start working in Addis, and without any understanding of Amharic I thought that it must just be my lack of substantial contact with locals that resulted in the feeling that Addis seems business-as-usual despite the fighting. Seeing the poverty in Addis, I can't imagine how people in Somaliland must be faring with natural and man-made disasters mounting around them. On a separate note, I saw you giving comments about the work of UNICEF related to the Great Ethiopian Run on BBC World last weekend- nice work!
Posted by: Radha at December 27, 2006 9:11 AM
I am posting my comment here only because there is no other space to convey my concerns. Nearly all Ethiopians, pro-government or opposition supporters, have demonstrated their appreciation to your efforts to be an objective blogger. I personally have no issues with your coverage of politics. There is nothing wrong with being fair. However, most of us Ethiopians go ballistic if we see some pieces that insult our culture and national honor.
I know that the west (UK included) does not take Sodomism seriously. That is not the case in Ethiopia. For us it is anti-God, anti-culture and anti-Ethiopian. You may want to take a little walk and ask people of any religious or political persuasion to verify my claim. But I have to caution you that you have to be tactful when you ask the question; otherwise you may face an unpleasant consequence.
I am saying this because I saw a link on your blog (meskelsquare) a link to a gay website. I know not how you choose whether to create a link to another site or not, but I am pretty sure this will be viewed by many as gay activism. And gay rights activism is not what you may want to be credited for. After all there are probably less than ten sexually deviant people in Ethiopian. Are you willing to campaign for these people and insult the rest of us (an the nation)?
Posted by: Blank at December 29, 2006 11:18 PM
"About the photos," Andrew, It is more bizarre this happened in a hotel owned by a Sheik.
Posted by: mulugeta at December 30, 2006 10:07 AM