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May 23, 2005

Keeping count

Ethiopian Review has been having fun with the official figures coming out of the National Election Board. It points out the huge difference between the CUD and EPRDF numbers in Addis - the CUD got around 80 per cent of the vote in most seats while only one EPRDF candidate got above 20 per cent. The website also did some interesting arithmetic outside the capital:

In some woredas the opposition defeated itself by running against each other. For example, in Shoa Robit, the EPRDF was able to win, according to NEB's official numbers, by receiving 14,988 votes, while CUD received 12,254 votes, and UEDF received 11,011. The combined CUD/ UEDF votes is 23,265.
For those who don't know, the CUD and the UEDF agreed to work together and form a coalition government if elected. But the agreement came too late for them to shuffle their candidates to avoid clashes like the one in Shoa Robit. Ethiopian Review has another example in Woliso 2.

UPDATE: Tobian ThinkTank is keeping count of these clashes. The last time I checked it had found six.

Posted by aheavens at May 23, 2005 6:17 AM

Comments

Who are you and what are you doing in Ethiopia? Do the authorities know your activities? You are a suspicious creature.

Posted by: Dereje at May 23, 2005 12:10 PM

Mr. DEREJE


You have now right to insult this man! This man is helping us to know the truth. He is balanced unlike our tabloid city newspapers providing rubbish stories for profit.

Unlike these peoples this man rent a web space (hosting expense), spend his valuable time to to find stories and update stories and etc..

you have no right to insult this man unless you are a member of 1001 tabloid city newspapers we currently have in our city.

Posted by: zeimpex at May 23, 2005 2:22 PM

Hi Andrew
I have few questions

I am wondering why do you think since the massive vote stealing started the western observers have not said any thing?

Why is that whenever the western media reports they try to compare the present situation with what happened decade’s ego?
Ethiopians has shown a democratic maturity that I have a problem finding a parallel anywhere. Don't they deserve a democratic process that is as good as any where in the world? It seems to me most westerners seem to say what Ethiopians have today is good enough. I believe this people deserve to be ruled by the people who they have chosen.

Posted by: beles at May 23, 2005 5:23 PM

Andrew: Thanks for keeping tab on the elections. I have noted that you went to Adwa to observe Meles vote in an uncontested seat. Nice of you to report on that event. However, I think your readers (myself included) will be more appreciative if you can get out of Addis Ababa and interview voters in the regions to get a better sense of what party they voted for and why. Here are my suggestions for places for you to visit before the results are officially anounced: Hossana in SNNPR (a region that voted for the opposition in 2000), Asela in Oromia (a good barometer of political sentiments among the Oromo), and Dessie in Amhara (a predominantly Amhara town that is ethnically diverse).

Posted by: Fikru at May 23, 2005 6:00 PM

Dereje, who lit the fuse on your tampon today? Obviously you read something you did not want to hear. Andrew is providing HIS own perspective, a right and freedom that he has, like you and me. It also seems that you prefer to live in a state of repression and control of personal views... and if that is the case, I definitely do not want to be on your side, whatever your beliefs and whatever the parties you support are!

Posted by: girum at May 23, 2005 11:56 PM

Dear Fikru and Beles, thanks for your questions (and everyone else - thanks for your comments. This is a great debate we have got going here.)

I agree with you Fikru that it would be great to get out of Addis to somewhere more interesting than Adwa. Your suggestions sound spot on. There are a few things holding me here at the moment. The main one is that Addis is the focal point of election news at the moment. The CUD holds its daily press conference here, the results filter into the NEB here and the EPRDF makes its announcements here. For a journalist, there is a risk that if you leave the capital, you will miss the decisive moment when one side claims a definitive victory or the other calls for widespread protests.

Nevertheless, I would personally love to pop up to Lalibela where, apparently, there was a realy close race between the Information minister and a virtually unknown CUD candidate. (Also, I would just like to go up to Lalibela.) Hopefully I'll be able to spare the cash and the time to make the trip.

And Beles, a lot of people here were also struck by the huge gap between the opposition claims of massive vote stealing and the relatively positive comments of the observers. In fact, it was a question I asked Jimmy Carter myself - how could he explain the disparity between the huge volume of complaints and the small amount of evidence that he had collected.

He basically dodged most of the question.
But he made two vague points - first he hinted that there may have been some exaggeration of vote stealing allegations and second he acknowledged that he had a relatively small observer team to cover a very big country. I can't make any personal comments about the level of abuses because I haven't seen any. As Fikru pointed out, I have been stuck in Addis and Adwa.

About your second question - did you mean the way the press often mentions that this is Ethiopia's third election following the otherthrow of the Derg which itself followed on from centuries of feudalism under the emperors? If you do, I think that is fair enough for the press to be doing that. Most of their readers know next to nothing about Ethiopia so a little historical background - no matter how simplified - has to be a good thing.

Posted by: andrew at May 24, 2005 4:57 AM

By the way, thanks very much for sticking up for me. But it is probably best to ignore posters like Dereje. They are what is known on the internet as "trolls". According to the Wikipedia, a "troll" is "a person who makes inflammatory or hostile comments, which by effect or design cause disruptions in discourse". (The full entry on the phenomenon is here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll ) In other words, they like it when people get angry with them. So don't let the discourse get disrupted.

Posted by: andrew at May 24, 2005 5:04 AM

Andrew: I beg to differ with you on the focal point of the election news. Yes, Addis, being the political and economic capital of the nation, is the place where the politicians make their daily statements. But, as far as I can tell, the politicians from both the governing party and the opposition camps are not talking about the result of the elections in Addis. Rather, it seems to me that the focus of the election claims and counter claims that are made by both sides at the moment are all found in the regional towns and rural areas. So, why not go there and talk to the real voters and local elections officials, rather than getting your news form political hacks on either side?

Posted by: Fikru at May 24, 2005 3:00 PM

Yes, Andrew, we're all clamouring for you and your peers to go rural! It was always obvious that that's where you (plural) should have been in the first place because the history of Ethiopian elections, plus a bit of common sense logic, tell us that most of the electoral violations, if there are any, would be in the rural areas.

I know that as a neutral journalist, going to the rural areas to report on allegations by the opposition may not seem strongly justified, since they are just allegations. However, there is other evidence, such as the drastic difference in results between the cities and rural areas. A 70/30 to 30/70 split between EPRDF and opposition in rural and urban areas could perhaps be explained away by substantive differences between the constituencies. But 80/20 and 0/100? Hmm! Take the percentage vote into account, and ...

Have a good time in Lalibela!

Posted by: Salaam at May 24, 2005 3:28 PM

Fikru and Salaam,
While it would be great to get direct reports from rural places such as Lalibela, Gambella, Goba and the likes, you must remember that Ethiopia does not have the infrastructure and systems in place for the likes of Andrew to pop into one of these cities, observe, interview etc. then go to another city etc. like any other journalist, say in the US would be able to. Some rural places, as you know, involve the use of mules and donkeys to get through the unforgiving routes. In fact, the more I think of it, by the time Andrew tried to go to one of these places and came back, election news may just be nothing but history.

Posted by: girum at May 25, 2005 12:48 AM

Girum,

Actually, one can fly to Lalibela in the morning, stay a couple of hours, and return in the afternoon! It's quite easy.

Same or similar for most cities to which Ethiopian Airlines flies.

Posted by: Salaam at May 25, 2005 5:59 AM

Good point Salaam - could you spare me the money for the flight - I'll pay you back, honest ;)

Posted by: andrew at May 25, 2005 6:59 AM

Salaam,
If it was so easy, why are you not in Lalibela yourself to get a first hand look?

Posted by: salaam at May 25, 2005 8:49 AM

Btw, that last post was from me :)

Posted by: girum at May 25, 2005 8:55 AM

Hmmmmmmmm………………!Are you guys forget that you are viewing this site for free?

good answer andrew !

Good point Salaam - could you spare me the money for the flight - I'll pay you back, honest ;)


Posted by: zeimpex at May 25, 2005 1:21 PM

Come on, guys, obviously it's not a personal issue with Andrew. Well, I guess I have to spell it out...

I don't know him, whom he works for, how he works, his constraints, and even if I did, on a personal level, it's none of my business.

Fikru and I are making a point about the foreign press _in general_, and using this conversation with Andrew to make that point.

There!

Here's to Andrew winning the lottery.

Posted by: Salaam at May 25, 2005 2:12 PM

Andrew: Your reason for not making the trip outside Addis now (lack of money) is a lame excuse. You have repoted on this web site many times about your travels to distant places in Ethiopia in the last eight months, for which I applaud you a lot. So, it seems to me, money can not be an issue for you at this time, or it should not be. Here is one reason why you should get out of Addis to get the real story on the election. According to EU election observers: "The National Electoral Board does not seem to be in control of the counting operation by the constituency electoral committees and limits itself to passively receive the reports from a limited number of constituencies." Read on:
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/africa/05/25/ethiopia.eu.ap/

Posted by: Fikru at May 25, 2005 3:48 PM

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