May 25, 2005
Funny figures
It is difficult to make much sense of the election figures flying around at the moment.
On one hand, the results trickling in from the National Election Board paint a very consistent picture. After an initial surge for the opposition when the results for Addis Ababa were recorded, they have settled into a steady two-for-one lead of the ruling EPRDF over the opposition CUD. It has been the same pattern for the past two or three days.
On the other hand, CUD officials yesterday said that they had already won more than 50 per cent of the seats in the House of People's Representatives, according to their own count of woredas. They also claimed they already had official receipts from the National Election Board proving they had won 155 seats. Basically they are saying that they have won the election through the official count, irrespective of any claims or counter-claims of irregularities at the polling stations.
So will there be a sudden rush of results from opposition constituencies - completely against the pattern of the 157 seats that have already been announced through the NEB's website (see right hand column)? Or has the opposition over-estimated the number of its official victories? I am sure a lot of you out there will have much darker conspiracy theories to suggest.
Claim and counter-claim update #4
Opposition party threatens to boycott parliament
ADDIS ABABA, 24 May (IRIN) - Ethiopia's main opposition party on Monday threatened to boycott the next parliament unless its complaints of alleged vote rigging in last week's general elections were resolved. Hailu Shawel, leader of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), said his party would not join any government if it believed that the elections were unfair. "The probability is high that we will not be part of this government - any government," he told reporters at the CUD headquarters in the capital, Addis Ababa.
Posted by aheavens at May 25, 2005 6:14 AM
Comments
I had al lot of respect for you until this posting. You are contradicting your self. 150*2= 300. If you are trying to imply something else, dare to say it.
Posted by: addis at May 25, 2005 6:48 AM
Sorry Addis, I am not sure what you mean. I am just saying that the opposition's claims seem to go against the current pattern of results. So there is either something odd about the existing results or there is something odd about the opposition claims. I am not saying that the CUD or the election board is definitely wrong.
Or maybe it is too early in the morning and I have got my figures all in a mix.
Posted by: andrew at May 25, 2005 6:55 AM
andrew - you will be better served if you read statistical analysis in this post: http://www.geocities.com/~dagmawi/Zebenya/05/Statistical_analysis_raises_questions_May_24.html
and inform us your opinion and any data analysis.
Posted by: dan at May 25, 2005 7:09 AM
My bad Andrew,
Like I said I got carried away. You doing fantastic job. Sometimes we expect you to say what we would like to here. May be we get more information(direct) from you than anybodyelse. Can you also update us about the private newspapers in ethiopia??
Posted by: Addis at May 25, 2005 8:18 AM
"...So will there be a sudden rush of results from opposition constituencies - completely against the pattern of the 157 seats that have already been announced through the NEB's website (see right hand column)?..."
That is exactly the strategy of the EPRDF (which more or less controls the NEB)--to make observers believe there is a pattern and establish a basis for clandestine actions to reverse the vote--"conspiracy theories" notwithstanding. Ask yourself how it is that the remotest areas are reporting while results from almost all the towns, including towns a stone’s throw away, so to speak, such as Debrezeit and Nazareth, are not being reported. Incidentally, have you noticed that the Mayor’s name is not in the NEB’s list of candidates who have lost in Addis? I believe he ran in Woreda 15 but the listed name of the candidate who represented the EPRDF (and lost) is another person’s. Why would that be--more “consipiracy”?:-)
BTW, thanks for your great site and your pictures especially.
Posted by: Selam at May 25, 2005 8:59 AM
Hello Andrew.
I want congratule you for your blog. I`m writing you from Spain. My interest for Ehtiopian situation born because me and my wife are waiting for adopt two babys in Addis Ababa. However, the process was interrump, and we dont kwon very well how is the situation righ now. Could you tell us something about.
Thank you a lot, and excuse my bad english.
Posted by: carlos at May 25, 2005 1:12 PM
I think the release of results is done strategically to steal the fervor in the election. People will see the results and the mood will be dampned, and I dare say it has worked atleast in the forums that I visit. I am not sure how the mood is in Addis or the rest of the country. Andrew, do people seem still as motivated by the election or is it more a wait and see attitude that is prevalent?
Posted by: dinbulo at May 25, 2005 4:48 PM